Monday, May 21, 2018

IOC Q4 results on Tuesday; here's what brokerages say

NEW DELHI: Oil and gas major Indian Oil Corporation (IOCNSE 0.89 %) is slated to release its March quarter results on Tuesday. The state-owned firm is expected to post strong numbers for January-March. 

Brokerage Motilal Oswal expects IOC’s core earnings to improve led by strong GRM (Gross refining margins) and healthy marketing margins in 4QFY18. It expects PAT (profit after tax) of Rs 4,800 crore, which will be a 30 per cent jump over the year-ago period. Ebitda is seen declining by 10 per cent YoY to Rs 7,500 crore. 

"We model GRM of $5.6/bbl and total inventory gains of Rs 1,400 crore for IOCL in 4QFY18,” the brokerage said. 

Sharekhan projects 52.4 per cent rise in profit at Rs 5,671 crore, while sales are seen at Rs 1,09,745 crore against Rs 1,00,338 last year (up 9.4 per cent). 

"We expect strong earnings visibility for OMCs, given our expectation of robust refining margins and the recent recovery in gross marketing margin on auto fuel to nearly Rs 3 per litre in Q4FY2018 from low of nearly Rs 1.9 in Q3FY2018," it says in its report. 

Brokerage Prabhudas Liladhar expects 5.4 per cent rise in profit at Rs 3,921.3 crore against Rs 3,720.6 crore in the year-ago period. Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) is seen at Rs 6,252.7 crore, a 41 per cent jump from Rs 4,408 crore last year. 

The brokerage house said lower inventory gains at Rs 460 crore in the fourth quarter against Rs 1,600 crore in December quarter are likely to drag earnings. "We expect GRMs of $8.5 in Q4 against $12.3 in Q3." 

GRM is the difference between the total value of petroleum products coming out of an oil refinery (output) and the price of the raw material, (input) which is crude oil. 

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